A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
For more on the election results, we've called Erin Covey. She is U.S. House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Erin, just under 50 House races that have not been called yet. Which ones are the most important to watch?
ERIN COVEY: Hi. Thanks for having me on. Look, at this point, according to the AP, Democrats have won 240 seats. Republicans have 147 seats. But I think Democrats are on track to reach potentially as many as 258, 259 seats. That would surpass their high watermark of the 21st century in 2008 when they had 257 seats in the House.
MARTÍNEZ: Any particular races that you're watching?
COVEY: Look, there's a number of seats in North Carolina that I'm keeping a close eye on. I think this was one state where Republicans' turnout problems were particularly acute. They had a very - initially, a competitive statewide race at the top of the ticket. But it became increasingly clear that former Governor Roy Cooper was going to win that Senate race by a resounding margin, and Republicans pulled out. And now, at this point, it looks like Republicans may only hold four out of 14 seats in that state, depending on how a number of those races that are too close to call pan out, which is remarkable because they went into the cycle holding 10 seats.
MARTÍNEZ: You mentioned North Carolina. That's a place where there was gerrymandering. I'm wondering - just looking around the country, how did gerrymandering work out?
COVEY: At - all in all, at this point, Democrats are actually on track to pick up seats as a result of gerrymandering. And that's not necessarily because these districts were dummymanders or were poorly drawn. They just weren't enough to withstand the incredibly difficult political environment that Republicans were in this cycle. All in all, Republicans had redistricted seven states in their favor, and it looks like they're probably going to pick up just three districts as a result of redistricting. At the same time, Democrats are going to pick up six seats as a result of redistricting in California and Utah.
MARTÍNEZ: So it definitely was a loss for Republicans, then, to even try it.
COVEY: Correct.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. Yeah. Sounds like it. So looking at the whole country, I mean, you know, when it comes to races that haven't been called yet, I mean, how much of a difference will it make for the Democratic majority in the House? I mean, is there a scenario in which maybe they only have a slim majority?
COVEY: Not at this point. I mean, again, they already have 240 seats, according to the AP.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. A rough guess.
COVEY: Going into this election cycle, when I was talking to Democrats, they were saying they would be happy with 230 seats in the House. So they have already exceeded their own expectations that they set there. And 240 seats will be a pretty healthy majority. But I - again, I think they are going to, you know, potentially pick up another 20 seats as a result of contests in the 50 or so outstanding races. But a number of these races are probably going to go into recounts. They are very, very close.
MARTÍNEZ: So we might not know, then, for a little while until they figure that recount out?
COVEY: It may take a while to get the exact number. And of course, in California, which is a vote-by-mail state, a lot of those results have yet to be tabulated. And this is normal in the state. The process just takes a little bit to play out, but we're probably not going to know the exact number of wins for a while in the House for Democrats.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah. We - here in California, Erin, we take our time. The rest of the country's going to have to just wait. They're just going to have to wait.
Now, I know you focused on the House. But the two Senate races that are still outstanding - Alaska and Mississippi - I mean, how long do you expect it to take for those results to be finalized?
COVEY: We'll see. I mean, I think Mississippi will be a little bit faster than Alaska. You know, I think Democrats feel pretty good about their position in Mississippi right now. I would say I'd rather be Scott Colom, the Democrat, than Cindy Hyde-Smith. But there are still a couple thousand mail-in ballots that need to be tabulated. There's, you know, an unknown number of provisional ballots as well. And then in Alaska, it looks like that contest is going to go to ranked-choice voting, which means that that will not actually be tabulated until November 18. So it's going to take a while to get results in Alaska, for sure.
MARTÍNEZ: How do you think all the polling that we were seeing leading up to the midterms played out?
COVEY: You know, I think a lot of the polling, quite frankly, underestimated Democrats' strength in these places, particularly in the South, where we saw massive swings towards Democrats. You know, in Texas, a state that Trump won by 14 points - Talarico is winning it right now by 12 points. That is a giant 26-point swing to the left. We saw similar margins in Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina. So like in the 2025 races, the polling did underestimate Democrats a bit.
MARTÍNEZ: See. We should never pay attention to those polls, Erin. But I know that's your job.
COVEY: (Laughter) Well, you got to take them with a grain of...
MARTÍNEZ: I know.
COVEY: ...Salt, but they are still helpful.
MARTÍNEZ: And they have some entertainment value. Erin Covey is U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report. Erin, thanks a lot.
COVEY: Thanks for having me on. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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